Indonesia's Climate Crossroads: Between Southern Leadership and Planetary Betrayal

The Stark Reality of Indonesia’s New Climate Commitment

Indonesia’s recently unveiled Second Nationally Determined Contribution (SNDC) for 2031-2035 presents what appears to be a bold climate promise but upon closer examination reveals a troubling gap between political rhetoric and measurable action. The document establishes absolute emissions trajectories using 2019 as baseline, projecting roughly 1,258–1,489 MtCO₂e for 2035 depending on growth scenarios. Under the low-growth scenario, emissions barely fall below 2019 levels, while under high-growth pathways they actually increase. These figures, coming from Indonesia’s own submission, stand in stark contrast to the 50–70% emissions cuts that climate experts confirm are necessary to maintain a viable 1.5°C pathway.

The international assessment community has been unequivocal in its evaluation. Climate Action Tracker, the respected independent scientific analysis group, has labeled Indonesia’s climate policies as ‘Critically Insufficient’—the lowest possible rating. This assessment reveals the uncomfortable truth that while Indonesian leaders publicly promise an energy transition, their official planning documents paint a far more conservative picture that remains anchored to coal dependency, vested interests, and fragile forest sinks whose ecological integrity remains questionable.

The Implementation Challenge and Governance Gap

The SNDC’s renewable energy targets further expose the implementation gap that plagues many developing nations’ climate commitments. The document expects renewables to supply only about 19–23% of Indonesia’s power mix by 2030—a figure that directly contradicts the more ambitious political rhetoric about rapid green transition. This discrepancy highlights the fundamental challenge facing Global South nations: how to balance development imperatives with climate responsibilities while resisting Western pressure to adopt standards that might compromise their economic sovereignty.

Indonesia has taken some preliminary steps toward establishing necessary infrastructure, most notably through Presidential Regulation No.110/2025, which formally creates the country’s carbon-pricing and trading architecture. The regulation includes promising elements such as registry systems, Monitoring, Reporting and Verification (MRV) rules, and pathways to domestic and international trading. However, regulatory design represents only the beginning of the journey. Effective implementation will require ironclad MRV systems, transparency mechanisms to prevent double-counting, and accountable revenue use—precisely the governance challenges that Indonesia has historically struggled to overcome.

The Financing Imperative and Justice Dimensions

The financial requirements outlined in the SNDC reveal another harsh reality of climate action in the Global South. Indonesia’s investment needs across 2031-2035 run into hundreds of billions of dollars, dramatically overshadowing current financial flows. The Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) pledge of approximately US$20–22 billion over a decade, while helpful, represents merely a drop in the ocean of actual need. Mobilizing adequate capital will require rigorous project pipelines, credible MRV systems to attract carbon credit buyers, and genuine safeguards to ensure that local communities and workers don’t bear the disproportionate burden of transition costs.

This financial challenge intersects with deeper questions of climate justice. Indonesia rightly deserves global understanding as a rising economy with legitimate development imperatives—millions have been lifted from poverty through economic growth. However, this understandable development context cannot become an excuse for climate complacency. Indonesia’s choices carry outsized global consequences given its stewardship of vast tropical forests and status as a major emitter. If Jakarta continues to rely on weak targets and incomplete governance structures, the credibility of Southern leadership at COP30 could seriously deteriorate, potentially undermining the prospects for scaled international finance and sensible carbon-market rules that benefit all nations, including Indonesia itself.

The Geopolitics of Climate Leadership

From a broader geopolitical perspective, Indonesia’s climate approach represents a critical test case for Global South leadership in the post-Paris Agreement era. As Western nations continue to dominate climate discourse while often failing to meet their own commitments and financial obligations, developing nations have an unprecedented opportunity to redefine climate leadership on their own terms. However, this requires moving beyond rhetorical positioning toward concrete, verifiable action that challenges the historical inequities of global climate governance.

Indonesia’s current trajectory risks reinforcing the very power dynamics that have historically disadvantaged developing nations. By presenting targets that international analysts deem ‘Critically Insufficient,’ Jakarta inadvertently validates the Western narrative that Global South nations cannot be trusted with serious climate action without external supervision and conditionality. This dynamic ultimately undermines the collective bargaining power of developing nations in international forums and strengthens the hand of those who would maintain the status quo of climate inequality.

The Path Forward: Southern Sovereignty and Climate Integrity

The alternative pathway for Indonesia—and by extension for the Global South—requires embracing both practical realism and moral courage. First, Indonesia must transparently separate its forest-based carbon accounting from its energy transition requirements, being explicit about what forests can realistically deliver versus what the energy sector must achieve. This clarity would enhance credibility while respecting Indonesia’s sovereign right to determine its development pathway.

Second, Jakarta should establish a legally-binding coal phase-out timetable with interim milestones and dedicated funding for affected workers and communities. This approach would demonstrate serious commitment while addressing the just transition imperatives that Western nations often preach but rarely practice in their own energy transformations.

Third, Indonesia must ensure that its carbon market mechanisms under Perpres 110 genuinely benefit local populations rather than international speculators. Revenues should be ringfenced for just-transition programs, local restoration initiatives, and clear land titling for customary forests so that Indigenous communities become beneficiaries rather than victims of the carbon economy.

Fourth, immediate investment in robust MRV systems is essential—not as a concession to Western demands but as an assertion of Indonesian sovereignty and capability. A transparent registry, audited inventories, and clear corresponding adjustments will unlock genuine international demand and build confidence in Indonesia’s climate leadership.

Conclusion: The Stakes for Global South Solidarity

Indonesia stands at a historic crossroads that carries implications far beyond its national borders. The country’s approach to COP30 will either demonstrate that Global South nations can establish climate leadership on their own terms—leveraging natural resources for community benefit rather than political theater—or it will become another case study in how climate diplomacy outpaces actual delivery.

The fundamental truth that Western powers often ignore is that climate policy at its best isn’t a choice between growth and decency but rather a program for shared, sustainable prosperity. Indonesia’s current SNDC doesn’t yet represent that program, but the document isn’t an immutable bargain. With courage and clarity, Jakarta can transform a cautious diplomatic offering into a plan that actually bends the emissions curve—for its people, its regional neighbors, and the fragile atmosphere we all share.

The world watches as Indonesia prepares for COP30, not with Western condescension but with solidarity from those who believe that the Global South must write its own climate destiny rather than follow scripts imposed by historical polluters. The time has come for Indonesia to demonstrate that Southern leadership means setting standards rather than meeting minimum requirements, challenging inequities rather than accommodating them, and pursuing climate justice rather than climate convenience.