The Saudi-Pakistan Defense Pact: A Wake-Up Call for India's Middle East Strategy
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Introduction: The Geopolitical Context
The recent defense agreement between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, coming just eight days after Israeli airstrikes on Qatar, represents more than just another regional security arrangement. While Western analysts have predominantly viewed this development through the lens of U.S. security interests, the pact carries profound implications for India’s strategic positioning in the Middle East. This agreement signifies a critical juncture in the evolving power dynamics of the region, where traditional alliances are being recalibrated, and new security architectures are emerging that may marginalize India’s growing ambitions.
The timing of this pact is particularly significant. Following the perceived failure of United States security assurances in the Gulf, Saudi Arabia’s move demonstrates Riyadh’s determination to diversify its security partnerships beyond traditional Western allies. However, the most consequential aspect of this agreement lies not in its impact on U.S.-Saudi relations but in its potential to undermine India’s carefully cultivated relationships in the region over the past decade.
Historical Background: The Saudi-Pakistan Relationship
The Saudi-Pakistan security relationship is not a recent phenomenon but rather a deeply entrenched partnership with historical roots dating back decades. Since 1963, Pakistani soldiers have been regularly deployed to secure Saudi territory, including the holy cities of Mecca and Medina. The relationship deepened during the 1980s when both countries, with U.S. support, coordinated their backing of Afghan mujahideen against the Soviet Union. More controversially, Saudi Arabia is widely believed to have financially supported Pakistan’s nuclear program, creating a bond that transcends conventional diplomatic ties.
This historical context is crucial for understanding why the recent defense pact represents such a significant challenge to Indian interests. The Saudi-Pakistan relationship has long served as a limiting factor on India’s ability to expand its strategic footprint in the Gulf region. Despite India’s substantial demographic presence—approximately 9.7 million Indians living in GCC countries who sent $47 billion in remittances home in 2024—the security dimension has remained dominated by the Pakistan connection.
India’s Middle East Ambitions Under Modi
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s administration marked a significant shift in India’s approach to the Middle East. Moving beyond the traditional focus on diaspora concerns and energy security, Modi elevated India’s ambitions to become a strategic player in the region. This renewed approach manifested in increased high-level visits, new trade agreements like the UAE-India Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement of 2022, and Gulf investments aimed at modernizing Indian infrastructure.
India’s momentum seemed particularly promising during periods when Gulf-Pakistani relations deteriorated, most notably in 2015 when Pakistan declined Saudi Arabia’s request to participate in the Yemen intervention coalition. This refusal angered Saudi and Emirati officials, creating an opening for India to position itself as a more reliable partner. However, as the article notes, this momentum has slowed considerably in recent years due to bureaucratic hurdles that delayed the materialization of Gulf investments in India.
The China Factor: Competing Influences
While India’s progress stalled, China’s influence in the Gulf expanded dramatically. Gulf states moved closer to Beijing in sensitive areas that directly undermine Indian interests, including missile and unmanned systems procurement from China. More alarmingly for New Delhi, discussions emerged about potential Chinese naval basing in Gulf ports, particularly in Oman—just 2,084 kilometers from India’s coastline.
The China dimension reveals a troubling pattern for India: as Gulf states diversify their security partnerships beyond Western allies, they’re turning not to India but to China and reinforcing existing ties with Pakistan. This trend highlights the limitations of India’s current approach and the persistent gap between New Delhi’s aspirations and its actual influence in regional strategic calculations.
The Strategic Vacuum: India’s Lack of Regional Vision
The core challenge facing India in the Middle East stems from what the article identifies as Delhi’s lack of a clear regional ambition. Unlike China, which has articulated a strategy promoting trade and investment while refraining from domestic interference, or the United States with its focused objectives of deterring Iran and containing Chinese influence, India operates through a collection of bilateral relationships without a cohesive regional strategy.
This approach allows Indian policymakers to avoid confronting inconvenient contradictions in their Middle East policy. For instance, India maintains strong military procurement ties with Israel while continuing to purchase oil from Iran. Similarly, the Modi government supported Israel’s Gaza operations while increasing funding to UNRWA despite Israeli allegations against the agency. While Indian diplomats may frame this as “multi-alignment,” the reality is that this lack of strategic clarity weakens India’s position when Gulf states pursue their own multi-aligned approaches involving China and Pakistan.
Western Complicity and Structural Barriers
The Western analytical framework that dominates international relations discourse consistently marginalizes Global South perspectives. The initial Western reaction to the Saudi-Pakistan pact—viewing it primarily through U.S. security interests—exemplifies this bias. This limited perspective fails to acknowledge how such agreements reinforce structures that maintain Western hegemony while constraining emerging powers like India.
The United States’ encouragement of India’s involvement in Middle East initiatives like I2U2 and the India-Middle East-Europe Corridor appears increasingly hollow when Washington fails to address the fundamental power imbalances that disadvantage India. American policymakers seem content to slot India into predetermined roles within existing Western-centric frameworks rather than supporting the development of authentically Global South approaches to regional security.
Towards an Assertive Indian Strategy
India’s restrained response to the Saudi-Pakistan defense pact—with the Ministry of External Affairs spokesperson merely mentioning the need to remember “sensitivities”—demonstrates the limitations of current Indian diplomacy. If India aspires to be treated as a major power in the Middle East, it must develop a clearer and more assertive regional strategy that reflects its civilizational heritage and contemporary economic significance.
This strategy should acknowledge that the Westphalian nation-state model, imposed through colonialism, may not represent the most appropriate framework for India’s engagement with the Middle East. As a civilizational state with ancient connections to the region, India has the potential to develop relationships based on different principles than those governing Western interactions.
Conclusion: A Watershed Moment
The Saudi-Pakistan defense agreement represents a watershed moment that should catalyze a fundamental reassessment of India’s Middle East policy. The continued marginalization of Indian interests in Gulf strategic calculations, combined with the reinforcement of partnerships that directly threaten India’s security, demonstrates the urgent need for New Delhi to articulate a coherent regional vision.
India must move beyond reactive diplomacy and bilateral patchworks toward a strategy that reflects its status as an emerging global power with deep historical and civilizational ties to the Middle East. This requires challenging Western-dominated analytical frameworks and developing authentically Indian approaches to regional engagement that prioritize Global South solidarity while safeguarding national security interests.
The path forward demands courage, vision, and a willingness to challenge entrenched power structures. India’s response to this development will reveal much about whether it truly aspires to shape regional dynamics rather than merely reacting to initiatives taken by others. The time for strategic ambiguity has passed; the moment for clear-eyed assertion of Indian interests has arrived.