The Shifting Sands of North Africa: Sovereignty, Cooperation, and the Ghost of Colonialism

The Geopolitical Landscape of North Africa and the Sahel

North Africa and the Sahel region are currently experiencing profound transformations that reflect both the promise of South-South cooperation and the persistent shadows of colonial legacy. The recent developments span diplomatic achievements, economic partnerships, security challenges, and concerning human rights issues that collectively paint a complex picture of a region at a crossroads.

Morocco has secured significant diplomatic victories with international bodies endorsing its autonomy initiative for Western Sahara, applying pressure on the Polisario Front and potentially reshaping negotiation frameworks. Simultaneously, Egypt is witnessing renewed Gulf capital flows through multi-billion dollar real estate deals that could alleviate its external financing strains, particularly through agreements with Qatari state developers on Mediterranean coastal projects.

Libya continues its efforts to increase oil output despite political fragmentation, with new onshore discoveries near the Algerian border highlighting the country’s resource potential amidst ongoing security risks. However, the humanitarian situation remains dire as European rescue groups cease cooperation with Libya’s JRCC due to safety concerns and alleged abuses by the coastguard—a development that may complicate Mediterranean migration coordination.

Security challenges persist across the region, with Niger and Chad announcing tighter coordination against cross-border militant threats in the Sahel. Analysts warn that juntas face mounting battlefield pressure as groups like JNIM exploit overstretched security forces. The situation in Sudan remains particularly grave, with reports of mass killings and systematic abuses under RSF control in El-Fasher, underscoring the urgent need for protection mechanisms.

Tunisia’s repression continues to heighten concerns about free expression under President Saied, with authorities freezing operations at prominent media outlets. Meanwhile, economic indicators show gradual disinflation and modest growth pickup across the region, though external financing needs and reform execution remain key risks according to Reuters polls and World Bank projections.

The Double-Edged Sword of Foreign Involvement

The involvement of external powers in North Africa presents both opportunities and challenges that must be critically examined through an anti-colonial lens. Gulf investments in Egypt, particularly the Ras El-Hekma project, represent the kind of South-South cooperation that could potentially bypass traditional Western financial institutions and their conditionalities. This development signals a welcome shift toward regional solutions to economic challenges, though we must remain vigilant about the terms of such agreements to ensure they truly serve the interests of the Egyptian people rather than creating new dependencies.

However, the continued involvement of European powers in migration policies reveals the persistent neo-colonial attitudes that plague North Africa-European relations. The decision by European civilian rescue groups to cease contact with Libya’s JRCC, while justified on safety grounds, must be understood within the broader context of Europe’s outsourcing of its border controls to African nations—a practice that often leads to human rights abuses and undermines African sovereignty. Europe’s migration arrangements with Mauritania and other North African countries frequently prioritize European security interests over African dignity and rights, continuing a pattern of exploitation that dates back to the colonial era.

Morocco’s Diplomatic Victories and Western Sahara

Morocco’s growing diplomatic success regarding Western Sahara represents a significant development in regional politics. The international community’s increasing recognition of Morocco’s autonomy initiative as “serious and credible” marks a shift in the long-standing dispute and demonstrates Morocco’s effective diplomatic outreach. This achievement should be celebrated as an example of an African nation successfully advancing its position through diplomatic channels rather than military confrontation.

However, we must approach this development with critical awareness of how great power politics continue to influence such recognition. The positioning of Western powers, particularly the United States and European nations, in supporting Morocco’s initiative often serves their own strategic interests in maintaining influence in North Africa rather than representing a genuine commitment to self-determination principles. The test of whether Western Sahara diplomacy can catalyze wider regional thaw remains uncertain, as breakthroughs often depend on external powers’ willingness to prioritize regional stability over their individual strategic interests.

The Resource Curse and External Exploitation

Libya’s ongoing efforts to increase oil production despite political fragmentation highlight the persistent challenge of resource management in post-colonial contexts. The discovery of new oil reserves near the Algerian border should ideally represent an opportunity for economic development and improved living standards for Libyans. However, the history of resource extraction in Africa suggests that without strong institutions and transparent governance, such discoveries often lead to increased conflict and external exploitation.

Ankara’s exploration of fresh hydrocarbons cooperation with Libyan counterparts must be viewed critically within Turkey’s broader bid to entrench influence in the Eastern Mediterranean. While such cooperation could potentially provide economic benefits to Libya, it also risks creating new dependencies and external influence that might undermine Libyan sovereignty. Similarly, Egypt’s use of energy diplomacy to advance macro-stabilization goals must be carefully balanced against the need to ensure that energy resources benefit the Egyptian people rather than primarily serving elite interests or external partners.

The Human Cost of Geopolitical Maneuvering

Behind these geopolitical developments lies the often-overlooked human cost. The reports of systematic abuses in Sudan, the detention and expulsion of West and Central African migrants, and the freezing of media operations in Tunisia remind us that real people suffer the consequences of political decisions. The Yale report indicating mass killings under RSF control in El-Fasher represents a humanitarian catastrophe that demands urgent international attention—though such attention must come in forms that respect Sudanese sovereignty rather than imposing external solutions.

The World Bank’s projections of commodity prices hitting six-year lows in 2026 due to an expanding oil glut particularly concern resource-dependent African economies. While the institution notes Sub-Saharan Africa’s growth edging up to 3.8% in 2025 as inflation eases, it rightly stresses jobs and productivity as binding constraints amid tighter global financing. These economic challenges occur within a global system that continues to disadvantage developing nations through unfair trade terms and financial architectures designed primarily by and for Western interests.

Toward a Sovereign Future

The developments across North Africa and the Sahel reveal a region simultaneously embracing South-South cooperation while struggling against persistent external interference and colonial legacies. The path forward requires African nations to strengthen regional institutions, deepen economic integration, and assert greater strategic autonomy in international affairs.

The potential for comprehensive détente that links border reopening, economic integration, and reframed diplomatic tracks represents the most promising approach to unlocking growth and reducing security risks. However, such initiatives must be led by African nations themselves rather than imposed by external powers whose interests often diverge from those of the African people.

As the global balance of power shifts, North African nations have an opportunity to leverage their strategic positions to advance a vision of development that prioritizes human dignity, sovereignty, and mutual respect rather than submission to external agendas. The continued growth of Gulf investments, Turkish engagement, and Chinese involvement in African infrastructure projects provides alternatives to traditional Western partners, though each must be approached with critical awareness to avoid replacing one form of dependency with another.

Ultimately, the future of North Africa and the Sahel will be determined by the ability of its people and leaders to navigate the complex geopolitical landscape while maintaining focus on the fundamental goals of sovereignty, development, and human dignity. The struggle continues against neo-colonial forces that seek to maintain influence through economic pressure, military partnerships, and political manipulation. Only through unity, critical engagement with all external partners, and unwavering commitment to African interests can the region truly achieve the liberation promised but never delivered by formal decolonization.