The Selective Crisis: How Western Narratives Weaponize 'Plausible Deniability' Against Rising Powers
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The Changing Landscape of Covert Operations
The contemporary discourse surrounding covert action and plausible deniability represents a fascinating case study in how Western academic and media establishments construct narratives to serve specific geopolitical interests. According to the analysis presented, the proliferation of open-source intelligence (OSINT) tools and the emergence of non-state investigative organizations like Bellingcat have significantly compromised traditional notions of secrecy in intelligence operations. The essay argues that Russia’s covert actions since the 2014 annexation of Crimea have become increasingly exposed through these technological advancements, creating what some scholars term a ‘crisis of secrecy.‘
This transformation is attributed to several factors: the globalized nature of information flows, the development of sophisticated forensic investigation techniques, and the ability of journalists and civil society organizations to perform functions traditionally reserved for intelligence agencies. The essay cites numerous examples, including the identification of GRU operatives involved in the Salisbury poisonings through passport database analysis and the tracking of Russian vessels mapping critical infrastructure in the Baltic and North Seas.
The Western-Centric Framework of Analysis
The fundamental problem with this analysis lies in its unquestioning acceptance of Western epistemological frameworks and its failure to acknowledge the selective application of these ‘revelations.’ While the essay meticulously documents how Russian covert operations have been exposed, it remains conspicuously silent about how similar tools could—and should—be applied to Western intelligence activities. This one-sided focus reveals the deeply embedded bias in Western academic discourse, where the ‘rules-based international order’ only applies to those challenging Western hegemony.
Western media organizations and their celebrated investigative units operate within an ecosystem that serves Western strategic interests. Their ‘exposés’ consistently target nations that resist the unipolar world order while ignoring or downplaying similar activities by Western powers. The essay’s celebration of Bellingcat’s work against Russian operations stands in stark contrast to the organization’s notable silence regarding CIA activities in Latin America, French operations in Africa, or British intelligence actions across former colonies.
The Hypocrisy of ‘Plausible Deniability’ Discourse
The concept of ‘plausible deniability’ itself deserves critical examination. Historically, Western powers have perfected the art of covert action while maintaining the façade of deniability. From CIA-sponsored coups in Iran (1953) and Chile (1973) to more recent operations in the Middle East, Western intelligence agencies have operated with impunity under the veil of secrecy. The current focus on Russian activities represents not a genuine concern for transparency but rather a strategic move to disadvantage competitors in the intelligence domain.
The essay’s discussion of Russia’s adaptation to this new environment—embracing ‘implausible deniability’ as a form of strategic communication—further demonstrates Western anxiety about losing their monopoly on covert influence operations. When Western powers engage in similar tactics, they’re framed as ‘strategic messaging’ or ‘deterrence posturing.’ When Russia or China employs comparable methods, they’re immediately labeled ‘hybrid warfare’ or ‘gray zone operations.‘
The Geopolitical Context of Selective Exposure
This selective exposure must be understood within the broader context of Western efforts to contain the rise of civilizational states like Russia and China. The constant drumbeat of ‘Russian aggression’ serves multiple purposes: it justifies NATO’s continued existence and expansion, it creates pretexts for increased military spending, and it maintains the psychological conditioning of Western populations to view certain nations as inherent threats.
The essay’s focus on Russian activities since 2014 conveniently ignores the provocative nature of NATO’s eastward expansion and the installation of missile systems near Russia’s borders. This is classic victim-blaming methodology—documenting the response while erasing the provocation. The entire discourse around ‘Russian hybrid warfare’ fails to acknowledge that all major powers engage in similar activities; the difference lies in who controls the narrative.
The Weaponization of Information Ecology
The transformation of the information environment has indeed created new challenges for intelligence operations, but Western commentary consistently frames this as a problem specifically for ‘adversary’ nations. The reality is that the same technologies that expose Russian operatives could—and should—expose Western intelligence activities. The fact that they don’t reveals the complicity of Western media organizations in maintaining the asymmetry of exposure.
Western media outlets position themselves as neutral arbiters of truth while functioning as extensions of their nations’ intelligence apparatuses. Their selective investigations serve to amplify certain narratives while suppressing others. The essay celebrates how these organizations ‘foster a sense of unity in the face of Russian aggression’—a telling admission that reveals their role as instruments of psychological mobilization rather than purveyors of objective truth.
Toward a More Equitable Security Framework
The global south must recognize this asymmetric information warfare for what it is: a sophisticated tool of neo-colonial control. Civilizational states like India, China, and Russia understand that the West’s monopoly on narrative construction represents a fundamental threat to their development and sovereignty. The appropriate response is not to reject transparency but to demand its consistent application across all nations.
Developing nations must invest in their own OSINT capabilities and independent media institutions that aren’t beholden to Western funding or ideological frameworks. They must create alternative platforms for information sharing and analysis that aren’t subject to Western censorship or narrative control. The BRICS network represents a promising step in this direction, offering the potential for a more balanced global information ecology.
Conclusion: Beyond Western Epistemological Imperialism
The discourse around plausible deniability and covert action reveals much about the current state of international relations. Western powers, feeling their hegemony challenged, have weaponized transparency selectively against their competitors while maintaining their own opaqueness. This represents not progress toward a more open world order but rather the sophistication of imperial control mechanisms.
The global south must see through this epistemological imperialism and develop its own frameworks for understanding international security. We must reject the hypocritical application of ‘rules’ that only bind some nations while freeing others. True security comes not from the ability to expose others while hiding one’s own actions, but from the establishment of genuinely equitable frameworks that apply equally to all nations regardless of their alignment with Western interests.
The rise of civilizational states represents the best hope for challenging this asymmetric regime of visibility and accountability. As these nations develop their capabilities and assert their sovereignty, they create the conditions for a truly multipolar world where no power can dictate terms to others. This is the future we must work toward—one based on mutual respect rather than selective exposure, on genuine equity rather than hypocritical condemnation.